Lance Knobel of Davos Newbies posts on this useful site (and RSS feed): “latin proverbs of the day”. It has a nice search function as well, so watch out for some latin erudition on this site…
Who’s TiVo now?
It’s been an exciting week for TiVo watchers (the company, not the content), with most of the events hinting at the costs of TiVo’s failure to design a venture that built partnerships quickly in today’s technical and business climate.
But let’s start with with good news, a jury just awarded TiVo $73M in its suit against Echostar for infringing its patents “covering a method for playing one television show while recording another and a storage format that allows the pausing of live television, among other capabilities.” (WSJ, 4/14/06, TiVo Wins…). This is good news for TiVo, obviously, because as the WSJ journalists put it:
TiVo is facing blistering competition from much larger cable and satellite companies that have the advantage of already-established relationships with tens of millions of television subscribers.
In the last year, the overall DVR market has almost doubled while TiVo’s added roughly 50%. Nice numbers, but paltry compared to the overall market. And the jury decision is by no means a done deal; EchoStar has plenty of money to drag this out until, as I’ll suggest next, it’s a moot point.
In other news…
While we’ve been watching the battle between the TiVo box and the knock-off boxes of the cable and satellite companies, there’s are whole other sides to this revolution. For instance, Cablevision announced plans to move the whole DVR feature set upstream (CableVision plans)…essentially putting the storage and playback functions on their own servers:
A plan by Cablevision Systems Corp. to let cable television viewers pause and store programs on the cable system instead of living room set-top boxes drew the ire of some programmers, two network owners said on Sunday
No coincidence that this news came out at the same time as networks like ABC and Fox began announcing their own ways to allow users to view television shows free anytime they want. Disney will now begin offering video of their own ABC shows the morning after they’re aired on television :
Episodes of the ABC shows — which can be paused, rewound and fast-forwarded — will contain commercial breaks that viewers can’t skip, making Disney hopeful it has figured out a way to turn the delivery of programs over the Web into a profit-generating business. Ten advertisers, including Ford Motor Co., Procter & Gamble, Universal Pictures and Unilever, already have signed up.(WSJ, 4/10/06, Disney will offer…)
The same story comes from Fox (Fox logs on):
Though Fox has lagged behind the other networks in taking the step to make its shows download-friendly, its plan is different in that it plans to share the revenues generated by the move with its 187 affiliate stations, something rival nets ABC, CBS and NBC do not do.
This is where it gets really interesting, as the networks must now figure out how to please their advertisiing partners–who paid for placement in people’s living rooms, and based on Nielson ratings, and not for web downloads (yet). And they need to appease their local affiliates, who lose their own advertising revenues when viewers can watch a show on the web instead of locally. But if the cablecos or the networks can figure this out they will make TiVo obsolete before it even had a chance to catch on. Why record something at home when you can stream if from the web anytime? Sure, these services are for viewing on the computer only right now, but does anyone believe that distinction will last more than a few more years?
Once again, the victor will not be the one with the best technical solutiuon, but rather the one who figures out a way to give everyone a little (or a lot) of what they want: the advertisers, the networks, the cable and satellite companies, the set-top (and PC) manufacturers, and–oh yeah–the viewer. Apple figured out the way for digital music, who will pull it off in video?
Launching the Energy Efficiency Center
Yesterday, we launched the first academic Center focused on the commercialization of energy efficient technologies. The Energy Efficiency Center (EEC) was created with a $1M grant from the California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF) represents a rather unique and interdisciplinary collaboration across the colleges of Engineering and Agriculture and the Graduate School of Management. California’s Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger gave the opening remarks (for related articles, I’ve provided links below).
The Center represents a new direction in the development of energy efficiency and, I hope, other sustainable technologies, as it brings the perspectives and resources of the entrepreneurial community into the conversation–the voices not only of the end-user, but also of investors, suppliers, resellers, and countless others.
As the founding Director of the Center, I gave these brief remarks:
In 1882, Thomas Edison threw the switch at his Pearl Street Station and created an energy revolution. But history can be deceiving. Edison neither invented the light bulb nor perfected its performance. That technology was 40 years old by the time Edison got to it.
Edison’s impact came not from inventing a new technology but, instead, from finding the right business model that would bring this emerging technology into the marketplace–a business model that would be embraced by customers, yes, but also investors, suppliers, regulators, and a host of other eventual stakeholders.
Thanks to the vision and support of the California Clean Energy Fund, the Energy Efficiency Center at UC Davis represents the first effort solely focused on bringing the emerging technologies of energy efficiency into the marketplace.
With the support of CalCEF and in partnerships such as we have now with PG&E, this center will be a catalyst for raising energy efficiency and reducing energy costs in California transportation, building, and agriculture—by bringing rigorous science and practical solutions together with sustainable business models.
Researchers at UC Davis and partner institutions already lead the nation in much of the science and technology of energy efficiency. This work can be seen, for eample, in the Institute for Transportation Studies where innovations are bringing the power of information technology and the internet to problem of traffic congestion and trucking logistics.
Other similar innovations are coming from the California Lighting Technology Center, where they are working in partnership with utilities, manufacturers, and customers to develop new technologies and standards for lighting—some of which can be seen in this building. And from research in Agriculture and Food Processing, where new sensors can improve the efficiency of irrigation pumps and reduce water consumption.
Dan Sperling, in particular, has been a driving force behind the formation of this center and his work has made UC Davis a national and international leader in energy-related research. He will play a key role in this center as its Associate Director.
This center will change the way we study energy efficiency, the way we teach it, and the ways in which we work together with the public and private sector to develop real and lasting innovations in energy. Keep an eye on us.
Here is some of the initial press reporting on the launch:
On the designer’s education
Bruce Sterling, BusinessWeek writer (author, blogger, etc…) wrote a nice piece today on the experience and transformation of the design education. He spent a year at the Art Center College of Design in Pasadena, teaching. His comments on the design education and its effects on students then and later are quite insightful. A snippet:
I imagined that as a teacher I might be grading their exams, running boot-camp drills, hell weeks, pop quizzes — but no, at Art Center the way is the rigor of practice. Demo or die. Practice is the crucial difference between people who can talk (like myself) and people who can design (like my best students). The Art Center kids were challenged with a small budget, a tight schedule, and a need to do something really good for their portfolio — something impressive, something worthy of public display. It was never made entirely clear to them what “good” meant. They had to sop that up from the thick smog of cultural values in the Art Center air while shut up tight with their teeming fellows in the Modernist steel monastery.
He also has some nice ideas about design and the relationship between thinking and action:
Design, as Charles Eames said, is a method of action. It’s not a method of “vision.” A designer, as Henry Dreyfuss said, is an artist who leaves the ivory tower and takes the elevator down to the ground floor…Today I find design to be thoughtful and sensible, while the daily texture of my previous life seems muddleheaded to me now, sluggish, vaguely trashy, vulgar even. Why was I like that back then? Why did I make such half-assed decisions about my tools, my possessions, and my material surroundings? Why was I so impassive, such a lazy, inveterate slob? I wasn’t any happier for that. Why did I allow myself to do little or nothing about the gross inadequacies of my personal environment? Why didn’t I take action?
In the end, Bruce catches something essential about the effects of a design education–in essence, it is about overcoming the “learned sense of personal helplessness” that possesses most inhabitants of the modern industrial world and creates a passive acceptance of our tools, possessions, and material surroundings. Not to put too melodramatic a note on it. The recent attention to design and design thinking is in many ways an attempt to teach people about their own latent abilities to change their worlds.
The downside of open innovation
There’s been a lot of writing lately about the valuable role that a firm’s customers (and others) can play in generating innovations. Chevrolet tried this recently, and found out what happens when you ignore a large part of your (potential) customers and then, finally, give them a voice in your innovation process. Autoblog just posted a very interesting set of videos created by “users” for GM:
As part of a creative new ad campaign for the new Tahoe, General Motors has teamed up with Donald Trump’s ‘The Apprentice’ franchise to create a website that allows prospectives to make their own commercials online. The website allows readers to select backgrounds, video shots, and input text in an attempt to win prizes ranging from a Jackson Hole Getaway to a trip to the Major League Baseball All-Star Game.
Some of the videos created can be seen here…for as long as GM doesn’t notice them. At which point, we’ll see where they turn up on the web. one two three
The creativity of the crowds
Here’s a good, brief piece in the NYT (Here’s an Idea: Let Everyone Have Ideas) on how the futures market approach (see the Iowa Electronic Markets for an example of tapping the wisdom of the crowd to predict political and economic events, and also futures exchange) to predicting future events can be used to select ideas from the company’s suggestion box–by letting the employees predict which ones will have an impact. This could be one of the more revolutionary approaches to managing creativity because it focuses not on helping people have better ideas, but helping management see and back the good ideas an organization already has:
[The founders of Rite-Solutions, a SW company, launched] an internal market where any employee can propose that the company acquire a new technology, enter a new business or make an efficiency improvement. These proposals become stocks, complete with ticker symbols, discussion lists and e-mail alerts. Employees buy or sell the stocks, and prices change to reflect the sentiments of the company’s engineers, computer scientists and project managers — as well as its marketers, accountants and even the receptionist.
The pre-history of musical revolutions
Anyone interested in innovation would do well by studying the evolution of new musical genres. One of the most striking elements of musical revolutions is their evolutionary origins. PBS’s 10 hour documentary, The History of Rock & Roll captures much of this evolution in the voices of the artists themselves: Little Richard describes combining gospel with R&B (and a bit of burlesque); Bob Dylan channels Kerouac; and David Crosby finds his role model for being a rock star in the Beatle’s movie Hard Day’s Night.
But Rock & Roll’s origins go way back, to the sharecropper’s life on plantations in the late 1800s (and no doubt before). And now UC Santa Barbara, through the Cylinder Preservation and Digitization Project, is posting a collection of old recordings (done on the orginal cylindrical wax records). Jody Rosen of the NYT picked it up in a nice articlethat puts the music in context. Take a listen.
What a difference a day makes
Last month I talked about the long, thankless efforts at innovation that predate a technological “revolution” (see earlier Politics of Technology). In the evolution of WiFi technology at the city-scale, we maybe seeing the shift in the adoption curve (from the long nascent tail to an explosive adoption rate). In part II, the incumbents shift from fighting the new technology to embracing (or at least exploring) it.
The WSJ today reports on the recent change of mind by the CableCos and Telcos, from suing municipal wireless efforts to competing with them: WiFi landgrab. This may be because they failed in 13 of 14 efforts to legislate away free municipal wireless last year. Or because it’s become apparent that, while they’re busy lobbying, others like Google, Earthlink, and many local others are out there building networks:
More than 50 municipalities around the country have already built such systems, and a similar number are at some stage in the process, including Philadelphia, Chicago, San Francisco and Houston, according to Esme Vos, founder of the Web site http://www.muniwireless.com, which tracks such projects nationally. By 2010, ABI Research forecasts a $1.2 billion market for the wireless technology used in the city systems.
In 10 or 20 years, this shift and its causes will be lost to some economic arguments about the inevitable forward progress of technological change, but it was critical nonetheless in shaping the paths taken (and not). Will Muni WiFi be the disruptive technology that undermines the grip of Cable and Telcos, or will it simply enhance their position? The answer, it seems, has less to do with the technology than with how (and why) those incumbents chose to react.
Speaking of networks…
A good discussion in BW of the role of networks in getting work done in organizations:The Office Chart That Really Counts
Many point to University of Virginia management professor Rob Cross as a key player in making social network analysis, which has its roots in sociology, more applicable to practical business needs. Cross has formed a roundtable that boasts 53 members after just 18 months. It counts biggies such as Procter & Gamble, Merck, and Lehman Brothers as participants.
There are some who network, some who who study them, and some who teach them. Rare is the individual who can do all three.
A mousetrap in hand versus in the bush?
What’s the value of a mousetrap (or two) in the bush? Hitting the road to spread his message of energy independence, Bush announced that the US was on the verge of an energy breakthrough (story):
“Our nation is on the threshold of new energy technology that I think will startle the American people,” Bush said. “We’re on the edge of some amazing breakthroughs — breakthroughs all aimed at enhancing our national security and our economic security and the quality of life of the folks who live here in the United States.”
I’ve spoken about the fallacy of better mousetraps before (mousetraps), but to recap–the numbers just don’t pan out. Of the 4400 mousetraps patented in the last 170 years or so, only a few dozen have made any money, and only 2 dominant designs are on the market (the snap trap and sticky trap). The world does not, it turns out, beat a path to anyone’s door for a better mousetrap. Nor will it for a better energy technology: solar, nuclear, hydro, geo, biomass…these were and are all good technologies. But that’s not enough.
Technological revolutions don’t happen overnight. to take hold, they require relatively slow and incremental changes in the behavior of individuals and markets. Edison’s light bulb (arriving as it did 40 years after the first incandencent bulb) still preceded the true age of electricity (in the homes and factories) by another 40 years.
So here’s the dilemma: the more we talk about a great technology just around the corner, the less we take responsibility for the harder work of changing our behaviors to exploit the alternative energy technologies that are out there today. The danger of believing in an energy mousetrap–that a technology will suddenly rescue us from our addiction–is that such a belief only enables our complacency. Don’t worry, be happy, and a solution will be along shortly.