The first penny…

Josh Kopelman has a great post on pricing models and adoption rates for new internet services, in his blog Redeye VC: The First Penny

Josh expresses beautifully the challenge entrepreneurs face in trying to offer services on a subscription basis (no matter how low). The demand for these services drops precipitously as price increases from $0 to $0.01.

Most entrepreneurs fall into the trap of assuming that there is a consistent elasticity in price – that is, the lower the price of what you’re selling, the higher the demand will be. So you end up with hockey stick looking revenue charts that go up and to the right, all supported by an “it only costs $2 month” business plan.

The truth is, scaling from $5 to $50 million is not the toughest part of a new venture – it’s getting your users to pay you anything at all. The biggest gap in any venture is that between a service that is free and one that costs a penny.

This is why hybrid business models are becoming necessary–advertising, syndication, brokerage fees. Anything before charging the actual users.

Experience Design meets Operational efficiency at Starbucks

In perhaps one of the finest lessons in how design (especially experience design) stands against operational efficiencies, Howard Schultz, Chairman of Starbucks, spoke out against the many, small, entirely rational operating decisions that combined to create a single, subtle, yet incredibly powerful undermining of the “Starbucks” experience.

In a memo entitled “The Commoditization of the Starbucks Experience,” Schultz describes how these many decisions have led Starbucks away from its roots and even from its guiding principles today. What a terrific note Schultz has written–something that should be required reading for every MBA in the country (and every design student as well, for what challenges they will face in corporations):

Over the past ten years, in order to achieve the growth, development, and scale necessary to go from less than 1,000 stores to 13,000 stores and beyond, we have had to make a series of decisions that, in retrospect, have lead to the watering down of the Starbucks experience, and, what some might call the commoditization of our brand.

Many of these decisions were probably right at the time, and on their own merit would not have created the dilution of the experience; but in this case, the sum is much greater and, unfortunately, much more damaging than the individual pieces. For example, when we went to automatic espresso machines, we solved a major problem in terms of speed of service and efficiency. At the same time, we overlooked the fact that we would remove much of the romance and theatre that was in play with the use of the La Marzocca machines. This specific decision became even more damaging when the height of the machines, which are now in thousands of stores, blocked the visual sight line the customer previously had to watch the drink being made, and for the intimate experience with the barista. This, coupled with the need for fresh roasted coffee in every North America city and every international market, moved us toward the decision and the need for flavor locked packaging. Again, the right decision at the right time, and once again I believe we overlooked the cause and the affect of flavor lock in our stores. We achieved fresh roasted bagged coffee, but at what cost? The loss of aroma — perhaps the most powerful non-verbal signal we had in our stores; the loss of our people scooping fresh coffee from the bins and grinding it fresh in front of the customer, and once again stripping the store of tradition and our heritage? Then we moved to store design. Clearly we have had to streamline store design to gain efficiencies of scale and to make sure we had the ROI on sales to investment ratios that would satisfy the financial side of our business. However, one of the results has been stores that no longer have the soul of the past and reflect a chain of stores vs. the warm feeling of a neighborhood store. Some people even call our stores sterile, cookie cutter, no longer reflecting the passion our partners feel about our coffee. In fact, I am not sure people today even know we are roasting coffee. You certainly can’t get the message from being in our stores. The merchandise, more art than science, is far removed from being the merchant that I believe we can be and certainly at a minimum should support the foundation of our coffee heritage. Some stores don’t have coffee grinders, French presses from Bodum, or even coffee filters.

Schultz has a point. Perhaps even more than he mentions. For while the Starbucks experience has lessened, many small coffee shops have been able to reap the spillover benefits of Starbuck’s scale and success. The market for premium coffee drinks is made: the majority of Americans now know what a latte is–many even know what a half-caf-no-fat-no-foam-latte is. And there is an increasing infrastructure supporting small and micro-roasters that enable even small, intimate, and local coffee shops to roast their own beans. Personally, I hold half my meetings at our best local cafe, Mishka’s, because the owner roasts his own coffee in the roaster set smack-dab in the middle of the store (and because I used to swim with him).

In concluding his memo, Schultz does not shrink from his portion of the blame for what has happened at Starbucks. That’s impressive. And I look forward to seeing the outcome of this memo. But I’m doubtful they can right this ship. When it comes to experience design, it can be an enticing (and worthy) goal for large service organizations but ultimately a dangerous one. Real experiences depend heavily on connecting with real people–both their employees and their customers–and the sheer scale of Starbucks makes it almost impossible to manage this connection efficiently without sucking the soul from it. And the aggregation of many small efficiency gains can be hard to pass up when you’re a large corporation.

5 things every academic should know when pitching investors

As Director of the Center for Entrepreneurship at UC Davis, I work with a number of faculty and students who are interested in seeing their research move from the lab into the market. To do so often requires pitching investors on their ideas. The challenge is that these are two very different worlds–with very different values, frameworks, and language. Not an insurmountable challenge, but usually enough to derail the initial meeting.
With this in mind, here are a few quick tips to help prevent some of the more common mistakes that academics make when pitching their ideas to investors.

1. It’s about the business, not the science. Until they know it’s a good business, they’ll give you the benefit of the doubt on the science. That means, for the 15-20 minutes you have their attention, your first priority is probably convincing them you’re working on a clear and valued solution to an equally clear customer (and market). In most cases, the market and customer are already well-defined and your research is improving on a common product or process: a better malaria drug, or more efficient light bulb. Here the priority is convincing them your solution is better than what’s out there. In addition to showing that your research is valuable and valued, talking about the business potential is a strong signal that you understand a care about bringing your ideas all the way to the market, they are investing in you as much as the research.

1b. Most investors have science advisors of one kind or another, and you may or may not be talking to them. Find out in advance if you will–and if so, then you can delve more deeply into the science behind the solution. Even then, be sure to show you understand the business aspects as well.

2. Know your solution. Can you state, in 30 seconds or less and in a language my grandmother would understand, the problem you are solving and how you’re solving it? It’s called the elevator pitch, and most entrepreneurs can give you theirs at the drop of a hat. Most elevator pitches include the customer, the problem, and the solution. For more information, try looking here or at http://yourelevatorpitch.com/

3. Know your competition. What’s the dominant solution? What’s the best currently available? What else is under development? How is yours better? Nothing shouts “Ivory Tower” like someone who doesn’t know (or particularly care) about what other solutions are coming out and how theirs matches up.

4. Know your audience. What kind of investors are you talking to: angel investors, venture capitalists, equity investors? Do they prefer investing in very early stage companies (seed money for launching a company), early rounds of an established start-up, or later rounds? Are they general-purpose investors (increasingly rare) or do they prefer to invest in particular markets/sciences (like information technology, healthcare, green technology)?

5. Know your own objectives. Are you trying to raise money? Are you trying to interest them in licensing the technology? Are you doing this because your dean or chairperson asked you to? Be explicit with your objectives (to yourself at least) and open and close your presentation appropriately. One valuable objective is to learn as much as you can about the market potential of your research. In this case, be up front about it–don’t make up a customer or market if you don’t already know. Find out your audience’s expertise and set yourself up at the beginning of your talk by saying “I’m not sure how my research can best be brought to the [investor’s preferred] market and so I’ll talk a little about the technology and then I would like to have a conversation about how you think we might take this forward.”

and as an added bonus track:

6. Ask questions. What are they interested in hearing about? Investors are as often looking for talented people as new ventures, and you may be able to help them by providing your scientific opinion on what’s happening in research that might soon affect markets. Similarly, you might have a doctoral student or post-doc that could work for them or one of their portfolio companies. Finally, you might know colleagues who are working in areas that they have invested in. How can you help connect them to other people, ideas, resources? What goes around comes around, and the more you can help them connect, the more they will help you.

Bringing business skills to scientists…

GTEA.jpgHave been busy lately developing a new program aimed at bringing business skills to scientists working in green technology: the Green Technology Entrepreneurship Academy.

For the last few years we have been running a set of business development programs that bring doctoral students (and post-docs) from science and engineering over to the business school where they learn how to think and act like entrepreneurs, and how to work with MBAS to turn their research ideas into potential (and real) businesses (Business Development Programs).

We’ve been having a blast doing this–it is essentially a mash-up combining business coursework with a design studio model for prototyping potential new ventures. Students learn how to talk to customers, explore alternative business models, model the finances, learn from these “prototypes” and then cycle through again until they have generated a business they have confidence can work. More on this later.

For now, am happy to see there is a sea change underway–particularly in green/sustainable technologies–around the role of the academic scientist.

Traditional views of science have held that scientists should be insulated from the demands of modern business and government policy–the better to search for knowledge and truth free from the influences of the market. But the cost of being free from the influences of others is the loss of influence over others. Scientists are increasingly finding they have little influence over increasingly critical areas of policy and technological change. There is, in the academy, an increasing recognition that scientists have an obligation to assume more of a leadership role in business if they want to bring about new and sustainable alternatives to current industrial practices.

The AAAS held its annual meeting last week in San Francisco, with the theme of “Science and Technology for Sustainable Well-Being.” AAAS President John P. Holdren set the tone, and reflected this changing rol, when he said:

Challenges such as poverty, climate change and nuclear proliferation pose unprecedented global risks that require scientists and engineers to join with political and business leaders in a concerted search for solutions

And from the business side, Larry Page (co-founder of Google) added his own two bits:

There are lots of people who specialize in marketing, but as far as I can tell, none of them work for you,” Page told researchers at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science late on Friday.

Page’s comments got to the root of the problem. Scientists “need to think that business and entrepreneurship is a good thing.” By not accepting this concept, scientists can too easily avoid taking on the challenging tasks of pushing their research into the market where it can make a difference. The Green Technology Entrepreneurship Academy is one way of giving science a voice in the public policy debate and in the direction of technological change. By training tomorrow’s scientists to understand business and entrepreneurship, we can ensure that tomorrow’s science can make a difference.

Inside the mind of a student of innovation

Just stumbled onto Peter Rip’s blog EarlyStageVC. While some of my best friends are VCs, I’m not and so I can’t say how representative his blog is of the general VC mindset. But I can say he is a great student of innovation.

VC’s have a unique perspective on the innovation process–they are by necessity both intimately involved in new ventures (betting $Millions will do that) and objectively distanced from them (to be able to pull the plug, if need be).

What this provides, in Peter’s case, is a great perspective on the innovation process that generalizes well beyond software and the Silicon Valley. And is refreshingly devoid of the traditional bus-book approaches to managing innovation.

In one telling post, How to double your valuation, he talks about what it takes to create value in a new venture:

So how do you double your valuation? Pick one application; serve one type of customer and be in that business. Show how you can conquer a specific set of competitors by virtue of the technology, but don’t be in the technology business. If you can persuade your investors that the first beachhead is attainable and interesting, you will get credit for subsequent applications and the big, horizontal play. Tell a story that shows you understand who your customer is, how to get to them, and why they will buy or use your product/service. Show how powerful the technology and team are, but stay on message about the focus. Let us imagine the Future.

  • Don’t enable – solve
  • Don’t provide context – provide conclusions
  • Don’t ask customers to build – ask them to use

Technology is raw material. Create finished goods.

All ventures–from Si Valley startups to internal projects, should be managed to create and demonstrate concrete value quickly while still promising a broader platform for future and dramatic revenue growth. Is your company managing the development of new ventures in this way?

McCain, Ethanol, and the politics of technology

Again, there have been plenty of calls for a Manhattan project for energy. However, there is a singularly fatal flaw underlying the idea that the federal government could and should pick and back winners from the constellation of emerging technologies: politics.

When it comes to large-scale technological choices, there is too much at stake for incumbent corporations to set aside their own self-interests and pursue technologies that threaten to disrupt their comfortably ways. But corporations are not alone in pursuing their self-interests. There are always plenty of other constituents doing the same. This reality showed up again in the debate over ethanol, and Fortune caught it nicely (McCain on Ethanol).

In 2003, McCain said:

“Ethanol is a product that would not exist if Congress didn’t create an artificial market for it. No one would be willing to buy it, yet thanks to agricultural subsidies and ethanol producer subsidies, it is now a very big business – tens of billions of dollars that have enriched a handful of corporate interests – primarily one big corporation, ADM. Ethanol does nothing to reduce fuel consumption, nothing to increase our energy independence, nothing to improve air quality.”

Yet on an August trip to Iowa (land of corn producers and early presidential primaries), McCain said:

“I support ethanol and I think it is a vital, a vital alternative energy source not only because of our dependency on foreign oil but its greenhouse gas reduction effects”

Politics and Technology make dangerous bedfellows.

Evolving metaphors

Mike at Life on the Road has carried the conversation about MySpace in an interesting direction (see his post as well as his comments to my previous post). One of his central arguments is that social networking sites are not all that different from most other “destination” sites: places where people come to connect with similar people.

I agree with this line…in it’s extreme, social networking sites are just another kind of chum to draw users in (to sell them ads, goods, and services). It’s a particularly convenient kind of chum, as the users develop it for you.

Prodigy, as one of the first ISPs, started life thinking they were part mall and part newspaper–meaning they thought they were going to make money by selling ads and getting commissions on third party internet sales. Instead, users flocked to their message boards and email and, in so many words, used it as a social networking site. Prodigy’s response was to begin charging by the email and by the hour for their message boards. Users left, and Prodigy never got them back.

One of the reasons to question MySpace’s metaphor is to better understand what business they’re in–what value they’re in the business of creating–and what business they want to be in. Are they the new Viper Room, the new Mickey Mouse Club or the new NBC?

Google, as Mike notes, has done a very good job of not allowing its original metaphor (an index on steroids) to become fixed in its users’ minds. Instead, their continual introduction of new tools has forced users to continually revise their assumptions about what Google is and does. More so than any one feature (like mail or calendar or maps) this series of new tools ensures that Google remains a living and evolving business concept. And its users never pigeon-hole them.

It’s up to MySpace to think past the initial metaphors (their own and their users’), use the current traffic to shape a new form that is more defensible and adaptable than the current one.

MyTwoCents on MySpace

So here’s a question: What is MySpace?

Aristotle once said:

The greatest thing by far is to be a master of metaphor; it is the one thing that cannot be learnt from others; and it is also a sign of genius, since a good metaphor implies an intuitive perception of the similarity in the dissimilar. (De Poetica)

Organizations–especially startups–must also master the metaphor.

I’ll be the first to admit that emerging technologies are tethered to the market’s dominant metaphors, which are built from people’s current and past experiences. We make sense of the new only in terms of the old.

But I have also argued the issue is not whether new technologies are interpreted through old frames, but which old frames. This weekend, after reading both a WSJ story on MySpace (MySpace, ByeSpace) and a parent’s experience with facebook.com (Facebook… ), I saw the enormous leverage of a good metaphor in business.

So what is MySpace?

Is it the next media platform–a new company with the reach and influence of an NBC? Does its phenomenal ascendance and enormous population of demographically perfect users mean it is the platform that will usher in a new golden age for marketers. What they last saw in the 1950’s with television and its ability to reach 75% of the viewing audience at a single moment? Is MySpace the next television?

Or it is not the network but rather the hot show–the Mickey Mouse Club or Davy Crockett that sold millions of mouse-eared hats and coon-skin caps. The kids across America who watched these shows were the canaries in the marketing coalmines (pardon my own metaphors), giving advertisers a glimpse into the power of that new medium to create and drive buying behavior from the ground up. Before then, kids were an elusive target and, a few decades later, were so bombarded with advertising that no one message carried as much weight. Is MySpace a glorified, 24/7 Mickey Mouse Club?

What I realized this weekend, reading both the business press and a parent’s account of these social networking sites is that, to me, these social networking sites are exactly that. When I was a junior in high school, after basketball games we would all meet at the nearby McDonalds (Mickey D’s). When I was a senior, we shifted to Burger King (the BK lounge). Why the shift? As Yogi Berra would have explained, “Nobody went to McDonald’s anymore, it was too crowded.” The same flocking behavior accounts, on differing scales, for shifting fortunes of the club scenes in LA and New York.

MySpace is the new BK Lounge. Granted, a national one, but it’s the place kids go to see and be seen.

The discerning teenager–and when it comes to social networking, perhaps nobody is more discerning–now talks candidly about where they choose to spend their online time and why. Kids talk about how MySpace is getting too crowded, too mainstream, and they are looking for somewhere else to hang out. Somewhere with a bit of cachet. And for this reason, the club/lounge seems the closest metaphor for social networking sites.

The problem with this metaphor is that, while it accounts for the phenomenally easy growth of MySpace, it also predicts an equally easy abandonment by its users. Time will tell.

In defense of ethanol

While I had to turn comments off (another victim of spam), I received this post from Brian Glassman via email and feel compelled to post it:

Dr. Hargadon illustrates an important point which has been downplayed in promotions for Ethanol, E10, and E85 fuels, that they are not equivalent in their mile per gallon to gasoline. The Ethanol industry in general has been pushing away from this fact, by promoting ethanol’s greener side and hoping that while they publicize its’ eco-friendliness, researchers and producers will drive the manufacturing costs down to the point were it can compete on a cost bases with gasoline. Fortunately, the recent research push has done just this. Researchers like Michael Raab, and others are coming up with new innovative ways to reduce ethanol manufacturing cost. I was recently part of a group who were among the few to attack the low fuel mileage aspects of E85 and E10, by creating a bio-based fuel additive to boost mpg, with the goal of making it comparable in mpg to gasoline (first link below). However, this doesn’t escape the final point that Dr. Hargadon makes and that I agree with: “the less glamorous solutions like energy efficiency through improved mileage, better public transportation, smarter commuting” are just practical and definitely attainable and should not be ignored.
Thank you
Brian Glassman

http://www.pratt.duke.edu/pratt_press/web.php?sid=333&iid=38
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=16408&ch=biztech
http://www.technologyreview.com/TR35/Profile.aspx?Cand=T&TRID=436
http://www.agrivida.com/news.html

Not one to squelch debate, me. Though I remain skeptical that we can successfully coincide the development of low-cost cellulosic ethanols (made from stalks and other ag by-products) with their boosting, their distribution and their broad adoption and resulting engine optimization. All of this in the face of new eco-diesels from Mercedes and Honda that show both reduced emissions and tremendous efficiencies.

Many technologies make their greatest performance improvements only when competing technologies arrive on the scene–witness the Welsbach mantle increasing the performance of gas lamps by 6-fold when the light bulb first reached the market, and the steam engine doubling in efficiency in the years after the internal combustion engine. What is in store for the ICE when alternatives truly become a threat?

All of which is to say–innovation means progress. Whether the alternative fuels win or traditional gas and diesel wins, we will be better off than if these challengers weren’t around.