Hope for TiVo?

I have written elsewhere (Leading with Vision: The Design of New Ventures) about the challenges for TiVo in today’s networked world. This morning TiVo and Yahoo announced what I sincerely hope to be a new strategic direction for the company:

TiVo Inc. and Yahoo Inc. said on Monday launched a collaborative service that allows TiVo users to program their digital video recorders remotely using Yahoo’s television information Web sites. Shares of TiVo rose 13 percent on the Inet trading system, as the deal appeared to help the company find new ways to compete with cable and satellite companied that offer their own video recording services. In the coming months, TiVo and Yahoo will also offer Yahoo services like photos, traffic, and weather available as part of the TiVo service

There may be hope yet for us TiVo fanatics, as the company struggles to move from being a box to being an enabling node in a larger network that its competitors, the Cable and Satellite providers, cannot or will not create.

In a world where anyone could design and source a digital video recorder (e.g., the HargaDVR) within a few months, TiVo has little advantage to offer as a stand-alone box. If you say superior user-interface, it’s the same as saying Charmin will hold its own in Walmart because of its superior user interface. That’s a nice thought, but when it’s sitting on the shelf next to a Walmart private label tissue selling for 25-50% less and you can’t (or won’t) experience the difference before buying, user interface is a hard sell.

Instead, TiVo’s biggest advantage lies in connecting the user to worlds beyond what the Cable and Satellite providers bring–making TiVo a valuable addition rather than interloper to the existing field surrounding the production and consumption of television content. If TiVo brings Yahoo into the television field, it brings a set of product features and user experiences that the CableCos could not. For example, Yahoo brings a TiVo-enabled network the ability to record programs from the ‘net whenever and wherever they think of it (TiVo2 could already do that, but not without visiting the TiVo site). With all of Yahoo’s content, that could be enormous. Yahoo already provides programming schedules. They could also provide long-tail recommendations for TiVo users that include more information about what and why, and integrate digital content along the way. And any ads Yahoo sells to the networks could carry its own “record this show,” getting rid of the need for viewers to actually remember to watch something. That’s just the beginning, or course, but a great leap forward for them.

In classes and executive ed, I have used the TiVo case extensively as an exercise to get people to see the enormous opportunities that come from viewing products as portals into networks rather than as ends in and of themselves, where the advantages come from what new networks you bring. I’m always amazed at the new markets that people think to bring in–from linking Leapfrog educational toys with network content (Blues Clues, Dora the explorer, etc…) to voting someone off the island to downloading old Leave it to Beaver episodes to inserting local and targeted advertising in programs (a la GoogleAds).

About 3 years ago, I had a conversation with the President of Fox, though calling it a conversation gives me too much credit. I told him I believed TiVo would change the television industry and he called me a thief for stealing his programming. The Networks responded in classic fashion to a new technology: threat-rigidity. Unable to see TiVo as both a threat and an opportunity, they chose threat and responded accordingly. The opportunity to grab and hold viewers with interactive features, to move them back and forth between the web and the screen, was too obscured by their own visions of what they provided for them to see. They too had their product and couldn’t see how their own future depended on expanding the networks of those surrounding them. In their defense, TiVo failed to convince them because they too saw themselves too much as a box meant to replace–not augment–the existing networks.

The art and science of design

Had a wonderful dinner with a few of the leading minds in the design and innovation area (feel free to have your own heroes): Bruce Nussbaum of BusinessWeek, Chris Flink of IDEO, and Chip Heath of Stanford University Grad School of Business. Blogging seems like a nice pasttime, but doesn’t hold a candle to dinner and drinks (not necessarily in that order). I left with a number of insights (and books and blogs to check out).

Chip’s work lies in understanding what makes ideas stick–in individual minds and, ultimately, in cultures. Why does an audience remember stories exponentially more than they remember facts? Why do some stories morph from reality into relatively standard narrative templates over time and retelling (like the Edison as inventor myth)? This has obvious implications for anyone involved in designing new ventures, new products, new ad campaigns, new change efforts in organizations. As Chip describes in one article:

“If we could understand what kinds of stories succeed beyond all expectations, even when they are not true, we might be able to take legitimate information, about health for example, and change people’s behavior for the better,” Heath says. “Or if I were a business manager, I would love to have a mission statement for my organization that was as successful at moving through the organization as the most successful urban legends.”

There is a vast and untapped potential in bridging cognitive science and creative output–what makes one incarnation of an idea wildly successful while the same idea, presented another way, fails without so much as a whimper. More importantly for this topic, here is where the art of design runs smack into the science…where the folks in black turtlenecks and architects glasses will be forced to cede ownership of design to ordinary folks doing extraordinary things.

Who would benefit from a more accessible understanding of design–from a few simple design rules for the rest of us? Herbert Simon, the Nobel laureate and bridger of cognitive science and organizational theory, once said: “Everyone designs who devises courses of action aimed at changing exsiting situations into preferred ones…” So, technically, all of us. Whether it’s an ad campaign or a mission statement, a new product or a project proposal, the principles of design apply and a little scientific insight into those principles would be quite powerful. Add to this population Bruce Nussbaum’s post about the design habits of young web users:

According to Pew “Fully half of all teens and 57% of teens who use the internet could be considered Content Creators. They have created a blog or webpage, posted original artwork, photography, stories or videos online or remixed online content into their own new creations.

In other words, more and more of us are designing–or realize we have been designing all along–and the time is ripe to develop a few ideas about design that stick.

Mailstorms and the weight of collaborations

An interesting article in a recent BusinessWeek (The real reasons you’re working hard) got me thinking about the paradox of democracy and hierarchy in collaboration efforts. The article talks about the increasing time and stress associated with working in a global environment, under extreme time pressures, on innovative projects, etc… One reason, the article notes, is the overload of email and v’mail, and the increasing amount of time spent on communication in the new collaborative environment.

The problem, in a nutshell-to-go is this: Succeeding in today’s economy requires lightning-fast reflexes and the ability to communicate and collaborate across the globe. Coming up with innovative ideas, products, and services means getting people across different divisions and different companies to work together.

Aside from tapping the knowledge of the esteemed John Helferich (of Masterfoods USA) and Rob Cross (of U. of Virgina), the article brings up some very interesting questions regarding the role of collaboration networks in modern organizations. On the one hand, teams that cross functional, geographic, and (sometimes) organizational boundaries have now become crucial tools for organizations responding to opportunities and crises. But are these networks really worth their weight?

Technology has created the means for relatively instantaneous, costless, and place-less communication, enabling us to text-message in the dentist’s chair, teleconference on the drive to work, and email during the Late Show. But the technical infrastructure may not have been the bottleneck. And now, with it gone, the real bottlenecks are hidden under attitudes, expectations, and behaviors regarding how much individual employees should collaborate, with whom, and how.

There are, I’m sure, a long list of these attitudes, expectations, and behaviors–the culture of collaboration in organizations–which is worth exploring in its own post. Here briefly are a few examples:
1. Courtesy: You will respond promptly to any email you receive.
2. Democracy: You should keep everyone in the loop.
3. Diffused Responsibility: CC’ing someone ensures that they have read the message and, without responding, implicitly approved its content.
4. Loyalty: Everyone has time to work with everyone else, and will do so because it’s in the organization’s best interest.
And most importantly,
5. Insensitivity: Collaboration is cost-free.

But is it? There are several interesting insights about collaboration that come from network theory. First is that the number of potential links, or relationships, between nodes in the network (whether people in the organization or webpages on the web) increases exponentially with the number of nodes (n) according to the equation: n(n-1)/2. This means that as the size of teams or other collaborations grows, the number of possible links between members grows–a team of 3 has 3 relationships to manage (3(3-1)/2=3). Add a fourth to the team, and the number of individual relationships doubles to 6. A typical team of 6 has 15 relationships.

Hot Teams
To put this in perspective, let’s say you’re on a team of 6 people (counting everyone who’s contributing or making key decisions) working on a hot project due at the end of the week. On Monday, pressure is low and each person’s emailing inputs at a rate of once per day. That’s only 6 emails going out and, assuming 10 minutes to compose and send, 1 hour in total, or roughly 2% of the 48 manhours (6 people x 8 hrs) worked that day. In the interest of democracy, everyone on the team is cc’d, so those 6 emails get sent to everyone else. At the end of the day, everyone receives 5 emails (30 emails in total), which each take 5 minutes to read. Now we’re at 2.5 hrs of total time spent reading emails, or 3.5 total hours (we’re now at 7% of the workday spent writing or reading email).

The next morning, if everyone responds to 1 out of every 5 emails, then the time spent on email runs steady at 7% (or about 35 minutes a day). That sounds reasonable, even nice. So what happens if we add one more person to the team? By Friday they’re only sending 14 emails, but now receiving almost 90, and spending 9.5 hours (an hour and 20 minutes) or 17% of their time.

So let’s keep the team to 6 people and instead–as with any high performance, consensus-driven, collaborative team–assume they respond to more than just 1 of every 5 messages. What if the response rate goes up to 2 of every 5 messages? Then the time spent doubles every day, from 35 minutes on Monday (7% of the day) to 560 on Friday (117%). How many people, on a hot team, read their email once a day? If we increase to two cycles of mail per day then by Weds, people are spending 9 hrs and 20 minutes before lunch. By Friday, the team is sending itself over 750 emails per hour, receiving over 3800, and spending 2600 hours doing so… No wonder it feels so overwhelming at times.

email-inbox

This is one of the most basic relationships in network theory, and has countless implications. Not the least of which is that the larger the size of any collaborative effort, the more imperative to limit communications and control the culture of collaboration.

Mailstorms
Now, of course this isn’t realistic…not even the most exalted of McKinsey partners gets that many emails in a week. But it does explain why I can be sitting on a teleconference and watch as the inbox on my screen jumps to a couple dozen new messages in less than an hour. I’d propose calling these little email dust-ups Mailstorms (in obvious homage) because they are in fact powerful, rapid whirpools sucking the time right out of your day. The usual culprit is some poor staffer assigned the task of scheduling a meeting with the 6 of us on a project, but it can also be the group’s responses to a proposed memo, or a mass invitation that a small (but now significant) number of people obliviously reply-all to. In any case, as a good citizen I’m obligated to crawl through these personally to catch if anything important (to me) is hidden amongst the verbage.

So what’s the solution? Good question. I suppose it comes down to individual self-monitoring: asking “who really needs this information” every time you add a second addressee to the email. Which in turn depends on the ability to actually make a decision alone, to take responsibility, choke the flow of information, and censor the mails. Democracy only works if we’re not given the responsiblity of participating in it all the time.

Bottom line: Collaboration only works when people already have the ability to think and work independently.

Either that, or pick up the damn phone and call someone instead.

You know the myth is alive and well…

The Great Man theory of invention–that for every great idea there was one man (history being as sexist as business, science, and politics) and one moment before which the idea didn’t exist and after which the world was never the same–is still alive and well. Despite the many of us who rail against it. Just when I think I’m preaching to the choir, something comes along to show me otherwise. In this case…Larry Schubert of ZIP Innovations sent along this notice:

As you may or may not know, ABC TV is creating a new prime time reality show called American Inventor. The show is being produced by Simon Cowell and others from American Idol, and the winning inventor receives a $1M prize.

There is a Bay Area casting call for inventors, designers or anyone with a good idea on Novemeber 17th in San Francisco. If you have any interest, please visit their website at www.AmericanInventor.tv for more detailed information.

Inventors have held the business media spotlight as American Idols since the days of Edison. So why not bring them into the mainstream market? This will be a great mirror onto the collective impression of how “inventors” should look, act, and if we’re lucky, sing and dance.

An unfortunate notion

This I wrote as a brief welcome to the new Fellows (doctoral students in the Life Sciences and Engineering) entering the UC Davis Graduate School of Management’s Business Development program:

There is a shared notion that good–no, great–ideas will take the world by storm. This is an unfortunate notion, as history shows us that a great idea often lies dormant for years, if not centuries, before finally being recognized.

Consider Fleming’s 1928 discovery of Penicillin, the antibiotic that saved millions of lives in WW2 and since. The story we tell is of how he accidentally discovered the properties when a culture of staphyloccus was contaminated with mold. But let me tell you another story.

In 1500 BC, written records tell us of the practice of applying mold to infected wounds. Moving forward 3000 years, in the 1860s: Louis Pasteur, notes that mold inhibits the growth of anthrax but decides to work instead on vaccines. In 1871, William Lister finds samples contaminated with mold prevent bacterial growth. In 1874, William Roberts observes the penicillin mold prevents bacterial contamination, but fails to pursue his findings further. In 1897, Ernest Duchesne publishes a doctoral dissertation in which he identifies, refines, and successfully tests–in animal trials–an extract from the penicillin mold.

Finally, in 1928, Fleming publishes an article in which he describes the antibiotic effects of penicillin on staphylococci bacteria. His article sits for a decade until, in 1939, Ernst Chain and Howard Florey find Fleming’s article and build on his work. Their initial success in purifying the drug and testing it in animals and a human ends tragically as their supplies prove too little. In 1941, Florey travels to America (across U-boat infested waters) in search of facilities large enough to grow and process penicillin mold. He finds them in Emeryville, where Chiron now sits. Thus is born the industrial production of penicillin that immediately saves millions of lives in WW2.

The notion that great ideas take the world by storm is a tragic one. It took 3000 years for mold-based antibiotics to take the world by storm, and roughly 50 years from the first animal trials. And this is not the exception. From the discovery of a cure, it took over 150 years for British scientists to successfully cure scurvy by packing citrus fruits on all naval ships. It took almost 75 years for aseptic handwashing to be accepted and implemented in hospitals.

And between Duschenes 1897 dissertation and Florey’s industrial application, 10 million people died during WW1, many from infection.

The unfortunate notion that ideas will take the world by storm is at the core of this program’s vision. Great ideas are nothing without the willingness and ability of those who recognize their potential to make them great. It’s not enough to write a dissertation or publish an article.

To truly make a dent in the universe, you must also bring that idea into the market in ways that do the most good for the most people. That means understanding the importance of the innovation process in moving ideas from the lab into the market, the importance of intellectual property in sharing the value of new ventures, the importance of building communities made up of investors, suppliers, customers and even competitors.

We conceived of and built this program to give doctoral students in science and engineering the knowledge necessary to not only bring their ideas into the world, but to take the world by storm. We expect no less of them.

Between Certainty and Doubt…lies entrepreneurship

Is entrepreneurship more like evolution or creationism?

The question came up, sort of, in the course of the past week as I was teaching a group of doctoral students from the life sciences and engineering about innovation and entrepreneurship. In the few years I have been teaching such programs, I’ve been struck by the differences in approaches between the pursuit of science and of new business ventures–and more directly–by the necessary orientations of those preparing for academic careers in science and those pursuing new business ventures.

On the one hand, new ventures evolve as genetic recombinations of old ones. But on the other hand, a great deal of each new idea is novel and untested. Most new ventures die young, adding nothing to the next generation (think of all the code written, then lost, when the bubble burst) but others, facing the same harsh conditions, ultimately thrive. Why? Are some ventures pre-ordained to succeed (they are better mousetraps) or is the process more random? What makes the difference?

Luck matters. And so species, like societies, rely on large numbers to continue the grand experiment of evolution. But entrepreneurs, like newborns, are samples of one. There is also adaptation. Entrepreneurs, unlike DNA-based life, have the ability to change on the fly. Customers not buying what you’re selling? Investors balking? Ask them what they do want, and give them that. And finally, there is perseverance. It takes a while before investors, customers, and others can grasp the potential of something that is radically different from what they already know. Quick (or change) too soon and you cede the market to others.

Anthropologist Ashley Montague once said: “Evolutionary scientist have proof without certainty; creationists have certainty without proof.” The entrepreneur must live with both mindsets: continually seeking the flaws in their ideas–to adapt–yet also believing in the eventual success of their venture.

Such a blind faith in their ultimate success is a prominent characteristic of so many entrepreneurs, but so too is their adherence to the core values of the scientific method. Edison experimented continually with the components and manufacturing of his electric light (and so many other experiments). Ford spent millions installing, moving, and ultimately scrapping the mass production machinery in this Model T assembly lines. But at the same time, these two men were known for their dog-headed commitment to their solutions. It was this certainty, without proof, that ultimately led Edison to fight Westinghouse’s competing AC electricity standard and led Ford to resist General Motors’ strategy of multiple car models and annual improvements.

In fact, it was very useful to teach the scientific method that underlies entrepreneurship. And, as usual, the Wikipedia has an excellent overview of the scientific method:

The essential elements of a scientific method are iterations and recursions of the following four steps:
Characterization (Quantification, observation and measurement)
Hypothesis (a theoretical, hypothetical explanation of the observations and measurements)
Prediction (logical deduction from the hypothesis)
Experiment (test of all of the above)

Further, it states: “The scientific method is not a recipe. It requires intelligence, imagination, and creativity.”

Characterization refers to a careful framing of the phenomenon or problem such that its critical properties and the relationships between them are made explicit and accessible for observation. Hypothesis describes the explanation of the preceding characterization in such a way as to test the validity of that characterization. Prediction refer to the predicted outcomes that should follow if the hypothesizes are true (or at least remains unrefuted). “Once a prediction is made, it can be tested in an experiment. If the test results contradict the prediction, then the hypothesis under test is incorrect or incomplete and requires either revision or abandonment. If the results confirm the prediction, then the hypothesis is more likely to be correct but might still be wrong and is subject to further testing.”

So what role does the scientist (as a mindset, not a profession) take in the entrepreneurial process? They are central to creating the value of a new venture. Consider the value of a new venture as roughly the product of its potential and its probability. Increasing its ultimate market (or technical) potential is nice, but increasing the probability of succeeding also increases its value. Here’s where the scientific method comes in. Divide the venture into its technical, market, and business uncertainties. State (characterize) the problems in each; generate hypothetical explanations; make predictions; and run experiments. This approach will never completely remove uncertainty, but it doesn’t have to. The value of any new venture increases with every non-trivial drop in the uncertainty that surrounds it.

The entrepreneur must, despite his or her blind faith in the inevitable success of their pursuits, remain a scientist–continually seeking a better understanding (and characterization) of the problems; understanding the assumptions they make (the hypotheses); acting on those assumptions; and treating those actions like the experiments in evolution that they are. That, and an undying faith that you will succeed.

A week well spent

Apologies to everyone. I spent a few weeks getting this blog up and running and then disappeared for a week. During that time, we were running our first Business Development Intensive workshop–a weeklong introduction to innovation and entrepreneurship for doctoral students in the life sciences and engineering at UC Davis.

Unbeknownst to almost the entire world, UC Davis has one of the largest research communities in the country with over $505M in total research grants and awards. Last year, we were ranked 14th and this year saw a big jump (the comparison rankings aren’t out yet). And yet relative to other institutions with similar research activities have relatively fewer entrepreneurial spin-outs.

Our business development programs are aimed at helping change the ratio of research dollars to new spin-out ventures by giving our students an understanding of what it takes to move from research to the market, whether for-profit or non-profit.

Anyway, learned a lot. Now back to our regularly scheduled programming. Thanks.

Science and Technology Brokering

A student of innovation, Mikko Ahonen, from the University of Tampere, Finland, is conducting his dissertation research on advancing our understanding of technology brokering. He raises a good point in his blog about where technology brokering–in other words, innovating by recombining existing ideas in new ways and for new audiences–does not explain the innovation process. The danger here, of course, is that a theory that applies everywhere applies nowhere well. But in this case, the question is whether technology brokering explains science. I’ve copied my response below:

I have run into the same questions about whether the processes underlying technology brokering can work outside product development. Namely, how general is the recombinant nature of innovation (the ability to put old ideass together in new and valuable ways) and the ability of people to innovate in thei fields by moving ideas from where they are known to where they are not? Put in these terms, technology brokering seems alive and well in many places where the presumptions of ex nihilo invention and discovery are strong.

Indeed, my reading of cognitive psychologists studying analogical reasoning is that the analogy is not just one way we think, it is the only way we think. We make sense of new experiences only by relating them to our old experiences (or the old experiences of others as shared with us…which is why stories and storytelling is so central to life).

Science is filled with examples of brokering. Coumadin, a successful blood thinner, was adapted from Warfarin, a successful rat poison, which was itself borrowed from a mold in sweet clover that was killing cows in Wisconson. Viagra was a originally developed to treat angina (and now is being explored for cardio-pulmonary indications in children. Indeed, the history of pharma is a history of moving compounds across “disease-worlds.” Only recently has technology given us the hubris to think we can invent new therapeutic molecules.

The real challlenge is social, not theoretical. Science likes politics because politicized diseases or crises can shake loose enormous research grants. But those grants seem to go to the large and established school to be spent in large and established labs focused on large and established research fields. How much is being spent on understanding the next sweet clover mold? And more importantly, how much is being spent to ensure that our understanding of the next sweet clover mold is connected to other fields across “science.”

This is an area where our understanding of the micro-mechanics of innovation (how people come up with new ideas and get them adopted) has enormouse implications for technology and science policy.

The power of innovation in dire straits

ABC News just posted a story (Volunteers Restore Net Access for Katrina Victims) that highlights two important points for me. Three if you count that my brother, Steve, brought many of these pieces together in a late night effort on the Thursday following Katrina’s damage (publicwebstations.com)/.

1. The power of the community to respond to disasters. Obviously, there are the front line responses–the bucket-brigades, etc…–that have largelly been replaced by emergency services (which have since been undermined by bad federal and local funding decisions). But there are also the crucial secondary responses–like getting displaced people their needed medicines, shelter, communication, clothing, and pension checks or other income. While there’s a lot of potential for tapping the community in reacting to front line responses (just look at the ham radios have always played, and now blogs are joining), there are some great examples of how the “open source” community is using its knowledge and experience of what’ss possible to bring help to people who need it. One of the ways that help came was in the form of an easy and cheap process for quickly providing web access to large numnbers of people:

In McKinney, Texas, about 10 volunteers were able to set up 25 public access terminals in a Wal-Mart store now serving as a hurricane relief center for victims from New Orleans. The Web center was established using PCs donated by Hotels.com, based in nearby Dallas, and a high-speed wireless Internet connection provided by the new Wal-Mart store located across the street.

We began receiving refugees this [Monday] morning around 10 a.m. By 10:30, we already had several people using the workstations to find relatives and loved ones,” wrote volunteer John Leidel, in an e-mail to ABC News. “They’re also being used to check the current news. Many of the people haven’t heard radio or seen television broadcasts for quite some time. They are seeing the pictures from the devastation for the first time since they were evacuated.”

Leidel, a software engineer, says that he and his fellow volunteers worked tirelessly throughout the weekend to set up the ad-hoc network. But he says the effort was well worth it.

“The medical station that has been set up inside was especially grateful. They have two of our stations in their area for checking in patients,” wrote Leidel. “All in all, this has become a wonderful success. As one of the incoming refugees put it, ‘This is the nicest place we’ve been [to] so far.'”

2. The power of recombinant innovation. The solution that worked in the Walmart in McKinney is a solution that could work anywhere there are outdated PCs sitting around (where in corporate America is that not the case?). These old PCs can be turned into simple Linux terminals, networked back to a single Pentium PC connected to the web. Each within about 5 minutes and all running off a single “server,” dramatically lowering the maintenance burden. It’s a combination of PCs and the old client-server model of computing, a combination of used hardware and open source OS and web browser, and a combination of new computers and web access with outdated machines taking up space in some backoffice in IT. It’s the equivalent of a geek bucket-brigade, strung out across the country, and creating the means for others to provide almost immediate access the web for both victims and responders

Steven Hargadon, a software developer in Sacramento, Calif., says he and fellow open-source programmers came up with the idea of open-source terminals based on their years of experience in networking computers running Linux, an open-source operating system that proponents say is just as capable as Microsoft’s Windows program.

“The technology is pretty simple and it’s been available for some time,” says Hargadon. “A working Web station would take no more than five minutes to set up, and requires no ongoing maintenance except in the case of hardware failure.”

So after Hargadon saw Katrina’s destruction, he collaborated with other Linux colleagues online to develop a special version of the software that can be easily copied onto blank CD-ROMs. Also included in the package was a customized version of the free Firefox Web browser which contained links to disaster relief information, news Web sites, and free e-mail services offered by Yahoo and Google.

The software is freely distributed on Web sites geared toward Linux developers and will work on computers as outdated as PCs with Pentium 2 microprocessors and no hard drives.

As is the case with so many disasters, our responses as a community show what potential we have for supporting each other in times of crisis. And they make us wonder why that never happens when the crisis is slow, lengthy, and under the radar–like public school education. The same solution that is providing web access to stranded victims of Katrina could just as quickly and easily bring internet access (and email, word processing, etc..) to a school near you.

Imagine what else could be done… Then, like Steve, go do it.

Caught in the iPod’s web (and lost to history?)

A WSJ article (“An iPod Casualty: The Rio Digital-Music Player, 9/1/05” – subscribers only) recently eulogized one of the pioneers of the flash memory mp3 players, Rio, which has just closed down, and mourned for the rest of the pack:

Rio isn’t alone in feeling the sting of Apple’s momentum. In August, Creative Technology reported lower-than-expected sales and a wider loss for the quarter ended in June, and said it was forced to write down the value of unsold inventory. About two-thirds of the Singapore-based company’s revenue comes from its line of Zen music players. Days later, Reigncom Co., the South Korean maker of iRiver players, sharply cut its sales and profit outlook for the rest of the year.

Rio introduced the first portable music player in 1998, three years before Apple introduced their iPod. But alas, Rio created just the player–not the entire constellation of player, music software (iTunes came out 10 months prior to the iPod), online music store (two years later), and legal songs. And Apple’s network has kept growing, with the addition of iPhoto, of Podcasting, and as folks like Cringely are predicting, video by Christmas. According to the WSJ, Apple has 46% of the flash memory player marke and, according to Forbes, 80% of the MP3 player market in total (not to mention 75% of the online music sales).

A century from now, as kids learn about the technological revolutions of the turn of this century, will anyone remember these products? or will they, like the first light bulbs, automobiles, penicillin, etc… get left out of the spotlight? A lot more valuable lessons for would be entrepreneurs and inventors come from these early and unsuccessful attempts than from just looking at the ones that make it. Like the importance of being in the right place at right time; like the value of elegant design (simplicity X functionality); and like the power of a network to overcome individual nodes.